Certain Strike 87 for Modern Campaigns Danube ‘85 Updated

Hi All,

We are excited to update Mark ‘Midge’ Middleton’s Certain Strike 87 campaign scenario for Modern Campaigns: Danube ‘85.

 

 

You can read the background for Certain Strike 87 in both this blog post and the original release post.

 

Here are Mark’s notes regarding what is included or changed in this latest version of Certain Strike 87.

CERTAIN STRIKE 87 - Update October 2025

Firstly, below is the current suggestion for Optional Rule selection.

Main change from the initial iteration is NO NIGHT MOVE DISRUPTION is set in PDT (for various reasons) so Night Fatigue will need to be highlighted.

The main thought process behind that, firstly, most modern armies are capable of moving around at night without becoming “Disrupted”. Second, inserting Airmobile forces at night was problematic due to units becoming Disrupted. Although the programme does allow choppers to move free from Disruption if they follow roads!

As was the case before, this is designed for Player vs Player gameplay, no work has been done on AI Scripts etc. I’m not convinced (from the little testing I’ve done vs the “computer”) that it can handle the enormity of this monster. If you have no friends or playing another human is not your thing then I suggest you allow the AI to take NATO.

I can personally never understand why you wouldn’t want to test your ability as a commander against another human, what’s the worst that can happen, besides obviously getting your arse handed to you on a plate by an eight-year-old. Saying that, I did lose a miniature game once when my opponents’ son (an eight-year-old) was rolling his dice, but we won’t go into that!

HOUSE RULES

Players are obviously free to make their own judgements on what they want to use and what they consider “Gamey”, these are what I’ve generally used.

No laying Artillery Deliverable Mines with SSM

No blowing bridges with Special Forces, they are designed in-game to be used for Reconnaissance or Attack Missions behind the lines. Having them run around the DDR blowing every bridge in sight is just plain daft!

No using Airmobile Infantry Attack Values whilst they are mounted (in T Mode) in choppers.

We’ve also tried to limit stacking countless Attack Helicopters together and moving them around like some kind of Death Star!

Other than those it’s pretty much been played as it is.

GENERAL OVERVIEW

For those that are new to this timeframe and/or have a limited knowledge of what to expect I offer the following:

The reason I chose this particular timeframe for the Scenario is, most commentators would agree (a rarity in itself), this period was the first time, potentially, in many moons that NATO stood a chance of holding off the Warsaw Pact using Conventional means alone. Prior to this it was highly likely that NATO would need to resort to nuclear weapons after about 72 hours of a conventional conflict.

This is pretty much down to two things that happened in the early 80’s. Firstly, NATO finally began to upgrade their equipment bringing in some excellent kit. Second, and just as important, doctrine both for NORTHAG and for the US Forces was changing drastically.

General Bagnall’s reforms brought in a new conventional operational thinking, Counter Stroke (based on Von Mansteins actions in the winter of 42-43 around Kharkov) for NORTHAG and the US were bringing in their AirLand concept. No longer would NATO race east to the border, dig in and await the inevitable Warsaw Pact breakthrough, then start chucking “Nukes” about.

NATO doctrine was now far more flexible, it included dedicated Reserves, giving up ground where necessary, numerous limited counter attacks and FOFA (follow On Forces Attack) to name but a few.

Not surprisingly the West Germans weren’t overly keen initially, because, to put it in simple terms, they would be the ones potentially giving up chunks of their Country. Ironically one thing I did realise fairly quickly in all my research, the West German Bundeswehr was by far the best equipped and had the skill and flexibility in their leadership to implement these changes far better and quicker than anyone else.

I’ll include a 400-page document for any madmen like me who find all this quite interesting.

Also, for those with an interest in such things the below book (not particularly well known) highlights indirectly the potential problems NATO had changing from a lumbering defensive beast into a flexible, mobile, quick thinking counter striking force.

Note: Clicking above book cover links to Helion, the publisher, where the book is cheaper than at Amazon. Should you prefer Amazon though: https://amzn.to/3WTbkRn

 

Obviously, this is a work of complete fiction and only one persons’ opinion of what could potentially happen, not that anything is set in stone.

So as far as gameplay goes with Certain Strike 87, as there’s no historical template to follow, so a rough guide should look something like the following:

Initial Russian breakthrough, including a reasonable amount of chaos, panic and head scratching for the NATO Player.

Over the next 72 hours or so there will be a steady stream of NATO reinforcements trickling in, units based for example in both Holland and the UK. So things should start to solidify with hopefully some semblance of a line forming.

On day three the French decide to come off the fence and join the party and both Air and Land Forces from CONUS also begin arriving (REFORGER) in numbers.

At about the same time Soviet 2^nd Echelon Forces begin to appear, this initially will be forces based in Poland and the Kaliningrad area. The Poles will also start arriving from about day three onwards in line with their war plans (I’ll include a document covering that). This will be followed over the next week by forces from the Western USSR, predominantly 5 and 7 Guards Tank Armies.

From there onwards, to be honest, it’s anyone’s guess, it could and has gone either way.

From a designer’s perspective, what’s been especially pleasing for me is no two games have been remotely similar during testing. We’ve had both major NATO and major WP victories. We’ve also had NATO completely collapsing during the first 48 hours and the WP reaching the Rhine. On the flip side we’ve had an aggressive NATO Player hold the WP fairly close to the border (albeit with some lucky early releases) this then led to counterattacks actually into the DDR. So nothing is set in stone and there is no “this should happen”.

The feedback has generally highlighted similar things, easy to play, difficult to master. Players who are able to plan and think on their feet are the ones who tend to come out on top. If you mess up, things can cascade into disaster fairly quickly, this is mainly due to the speed and firepower of the modern equipment involved.

CONSTRUCTION/CHANGES

Indirectly I’ve been researching this on and off since about 2010 (seems like a lifetime) since the days of Bolt out the Blue, which I played a small part in helping to construct. Early on I decided I wanted to completely redo all the equipment stats, to be frank, having served myself during the 80s I felt those in use for the original Danube Front, Fulda Gap etc. didn’t reflect the lethality of modern weapons. It has been quite a difficult task to say the least and since things have spiralled out of control in Ukraine it has become surprisingly more difficult.

I’ll just give an example of what I mean by that. Firstly, back around 10 years or so ago many Russians (ex GSFG veterans) were beginning to post/translate things on some of the bigger Forums. This enabled weird people like me to get hold of all sorts of useful information on equipment types, capabilities, numbers etc. Then for obvious reasons it all began to dry up, not only for the Russian side but also for NATO. Probably in no small part due to a lot of 1980s timeframe equipment being involved in the conflict all of a sudden.

It has been extremely time consuming, and as with many other subjects, the Internet is full of absolute rubbish in the main which doesn’t make life any easier. Finding out who had what, when and how many of them is a nightmare especially when I’m looking for a particular year, 1987.

I’ve changed a considerable number of things from the first iteration. The biggest of which has been the addition of new equipment types and their various models.

Just to give you some idea, if you include all the different Nationalities and variations there are now over 20 different types, both of T55s and T72s. Each one had slightly different capabilities so have slightly different stats in game.

There have also been considerable changes to releases and the reinforcement schedules, both timings and percentage chances of arrival. The arrival chance for the Poles is a flat 10% across the board, this reflects the political situation in Poland at this specific time in history more than anything else.

1 Guards Tank Army and 20 Guards Army both fix on Turn 1 and release on the 10:00 turn (Day 1), this reflects them being on exercise (as per my original blog) and then becoming available as a Second Echelon (which they historically were) after the frontline Armies have moved into the attack.

Additional AD assets for both sides are now included in-game. The WP ones are static representing the large number of fixed sites in the DDR. The NATO ones represent the forward SAM Belt which mainly consisted of HAWK SAMs with the odd Patriot just beginning to appear, these were mobile. But they Fix on Turn 1 to stop players moving them around to become additional AD for various formations. Their job was to intercept WP Aircraft heading deep into Germany not to provide support for any nearby Brigade. They will “Trigger” Release if enemy are spotted.

Strategic Options have also had a makeover, both sides. Pay special attention to the Soviet Coup de Main Option for the 7 Guards Air Assault Division. I decided to use the Russian operation at Hostomel Airport in Ukraine as a template. You will need to take an airport at one of three locations (Bremen Airport (hex 189, 110), Nurnberg Airport (hex 155, 374), or Munich Airport (hex 147, 459) - your choice as to which) before the Airborne Division will arrive, as it is a conditional reinforcement. This is exactly what the Russians attempted and failed to do at Hostomel. I feel this is a far more realistic scenario than the Soviets attempting a Divisional scale Parachute drop on day three of the conflict!

SAMs have also been altered significantly, they are now deadly, as they should be. Thought needs to be given to SAM Suppression, if you just throw aircraft and/or choppers at any old target with no consideration of where enemy AD assets are you will die a horrible death.

A quick word on Recce units. I’ve approached this from a completely different angle than what’s gone before, I’ve tried to move away from the “Recce by Death” syndrome. I wanted to simulate the various abilities and modus operandi of these units in a more subtle way. By using the UAV ability available in the programme I’ve pretty much got to where I want to be. Having spent most of the 80s in Recce Troop I have a reasonable handle on how these forces conducted their business.

The UAV ability simulates nicely the various ways Recce units worked, infiltration, stay behind OPs and Recce Patrols to name but a few. These were more often than not conducted by specialist vehicles and in some cases by personnel being dropped off. Another important thing that needed representing was the GSR (Ground Surveillance Radar). Pretty much every Recon Battalions in-game had GSRs as part of their TO&E by 87, the Russians also had them at Regiment level on BRMs as part of each Regiments Recce group. This gave both sides the ability to detect enemy movement, both vehicle and foot (to a lesser degree) out to 5-7 Km. So, this ties in nicely with the UAV ability the programme offers.

I’ve also added another layer of detail into Recon Battalions, and most are now split down into their various component parts, normally 3 Coys often with different equipment and capabilities.

You will notice the US forces are handled slightly differently. They had just had a 5–6-year period where they had no dedicated Reconnaissance vehicle, the M114 having been retired at the end of the 70s. This was being rectified by the introduction of the M3 (Recon variant of the M2 Bradley). Also, their doctrine at the time was pretty much at odds with most other Nations, I quote, “The best way for cavalry to obtain information on the enemy is through aggressive acts requiring combat”. I would call that fighting for information, or “Recce by Death”. In game the US have two unique Recon assets, the OH-58D Kiowa chopper and the Mohawk fixed wing Aircraft. These both have UAV ability due to the various excellent sensor packages on-board. You will also note I have marked the Apache as UAV capable, again due to the large sensor suite and the ability to move targeting information about digitally (a new concept back then).

Special Forces pretty much remain as they were. Three different types, LRRPs (Long Range Reconnaissance Patrols), Attack (with high Assault Values) and those marked as Partisan to cause Disruption to movement etc.

Note that some, but not all, can Deploy into Deception Mode as well. Two units, the 22 SAS and US Seals are Chopper borne, designed to be held in Reserve and used to infiltrate and attack specific targets as they become available. An enemy HQ spotted by EW for example.

Airpower, I just wanted to touch on something that I recommended and has been tried and tested in a few games, several of which are currently running. It’s obviously something both players need to agree on at the start.

The way I have currently set things up, the presumption is NATO has a reasonable amount of aerial supremacy (within the confines of the programme). Both their Air Interception and Interdiction values are set higher than those of the WP. Additional Air Assets also become available on the 14^th by which time it is assumed NATO Counter Air Ops have been largely successful. This “frees up” additional aircraft that would have been involved in those missions, predominantly Tornadoes and F-111s.

So, the thought process goes that beginning on the 14^th (day four) NATO would have the assets available to begin Deep Strike Interdiction Missions in earnest.

What’s suggested is the setting of Air Interdiction for both sides to 0 from Turn 1, then on the first turn of the 14^th (01:00) NATO Air Interdiction is set to 3 and the WP remains on 0.

As I say it’s just something that you may fancy trying if not normal Interdiction kicks in for both sides’ day one.

The above sort of links in with Supply as well. NATO Supply drops by 1% daily, after two weeks they receive a boost reflecting Seaborne Supply arriving from the US.
The WP (having more plentiful stocks than NATO) don’t begin to suffer any drop until after a week, at which point it is assumed they’re getting hit hard by NATO Air.

I think that just about covers it. I’ve included a few documents for some bedtime reading if you’re that way inclined.
There’s also the Tactical Notes I did for NATO for Bolt in the Manuals File that has some relevance for CS87.

If you have any questions, observations or gripes feel free to contact me:

m.g.middleton@hotmail.co.uk

Mark has also provided some documents links of further information used during creating of the scenario. You can either click on the image to access or download the document, or alternatively access the applicable web page.

FM 100-2-1 The Soviet Army, Operations & Tactics:

Generals Balck & Von Mellenthin on Tactics:

Group of Forces Germany Version 3.0.0:

East German Order of Battle, 1988:

Soviet-Warsaw Pact Western Theater of Military Operations: Organization and Missions

 

Detailed NATO map – click on image to access.  

US Battalion Modernization/US Tank Conversion

Netherlands Armed Forces, Order of Battle, 1985: https://www.orbat85.nl/

Soviet Armor History: https://thesovietarmourblog.blogspot.com/p/home.html

Armée française Armed Forces, Order of Battle, 1985: https://www.tanaka-world.net/?p=444

Here are a few sample screen shots of the latest version of Certain Strike ‘87:

You can get the updated version of Certain Strike ’87, two different ways.

Go to your store account and download the full version of Modern Campaigns: Danube ‘85. You can then uninstall if required any existing version and install the new.

Go to the Modern Campaigns Updates Page and download the latest 4.05.3h2 patch. It has been updated to include the latest Certain Strike ’87 files. Please note, the patch will only work on a 4.04 or later build.

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